On October 28, 2016, former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress revealing “the existence of emails that may be relevant” to the e-mail issue of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton…
According to a report by Knight Silver, a data analyst at the popular polling site Five Thirty-Eight, “In 2016, popular votes fell in favor of Clinton and this message had a clear impact on voter numbers in the major states. Percent, equivalent to 2 percent of the race as a whole (that is, nationally). ”
According to the famous polling site, in the event that a similar event occurs that affects Joe Biden less than a month before the date of the presidential elections, Biden is expected to lose the popular vote, and he will win it in return for his rival Donald Trump on November 3, 2020, but this event will not be Enough to destroy Biden’s chances of winning the major American states.
Only seven states are able to determine the next president of the United States of America and provide 270 electoral votes for any of the two candidates to win the electoral college and thus win the presidential race. These states are Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, and Minnesota, according to Five Thirty-Eight polls.
In 2016, President Donald Trump won all of these states except for Minnesota, in which Clinton won 47 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45 percent. A difference of 2 percentage points in favor of Clinton.
An event similar to what Comey did in 2016 would contribute to Biden’s decline in Pennsylvania, and according to the expectations of US polling stations, this state is the most likely to turn the game’s balance and provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College for a competitor.
According to the same website, the former US Vice President needs to remove Trump, to get 1.6 percentage points in this state (his hometown) instead of 5.6 percentage points. With these results, the popular vote difference between him and Trump is only 1.8 percentage points.
With 29 electoral votes, Florida has the most electoral votes. And in the event of any sudden development that may lead to a decline in Biden’s chances of winning in this state, Trump will become the favorite to re-sit on the White House chair by a difference of just under 2 percent.
And any last-minute development could lead to Biden losing also to Arizona and North Carolina. These states were Trump’s share in the 2016 elections and allowed him to get 25 electoral votes. It is not known who will win in these two states, but whoever gets the most votes will allow him easier access to the White House.
It is impossible to predict whether the Comey incident will recur less than a month before the date of the US presidential election, and the occurrence of a similar opportunity may contribute to the destruction of Biden’s chances of reaching power.
However, as the date of November 3 approaches, more and more, no similar event may have a significant impact on Biden, especially since a large number of voters have cast their ballots.